Context In this essay we study the agricultural land use change in the Region of Sardina (Italy) in the time period 2003-2008, which is the period in which the European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF)-based part of the 2000-2006 Regional Operational Program of Sardinia (2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF) on the regional agricultural land use was implemented. The general objective is to assess whether, and to what extent, the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF was effective in maintaining agricultural land use compared to other physical, economic and social characteristics concerning local development. The final executive report of the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF (Regione Autonoma della Sardegna, 2009, p. 232) indicates that drastic measures aimed at simplifying payment procedures were adopted only starting from the year 2003, due to dramatic delays in the program implementation, and that only from that year did the program really start. Moreover, the European Commission stated that the expenditure of the 2000-2006 ROP had to be entirely realized and the official statements of account had to be made available to the European Commission by June 30, 2009, due to the impossibility of meeting the original deadline of December 31, 2006. For this reason, we consider the period 2003-2008 as the most suitable to assess if and to what extent the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF succeeded in maintaining agricultural land use. Central theme and methodology It has to be put in evidence that what we feel really innovative in the comprehensive discussion of this paper is the intermixed use of Geographic information system (GIS) technologies and econometric models in order to assess agricultural land-use processes related to the implementation of the cohesion policy of the European Union. More precisely, the results of a fairly standard censored regression (Tobit) model are spatially represented implemented through GIS. The model is founded and motivated through a GIS-based representation of its variables referred to Sardinian municipalities, and in particular of Sardinian agricultural land use, which is the focus of the assessment. Expected outcomes and relevance The Tobit model results make it clear that there is a strong relationship between agricultural land-use change and the other variables. These results entail some interesting insights concerning investment policies to maintain, reinforce and possibly expand agriculture land use, whose relevance can be clarified only through a spatial representation. What we deem of particular interest in this context, in terms of policy assessment, is that the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF is the most important program concerning agricultural land use implemented in Sardinia during the first decade of the new century, and quite similar in both strategy and structure to the other 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF’s of several Regions of the European Union (EU) under the 2000-2006 Structural Funds. In Sardinia as elsewhere, investments were spread over almost all of the regional municipalities (only three Sardinian municipalities out of 377 did not receive funds under the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF), and represented an important effort to support local development based on the vitality of the traditional primary sector of production. Therefore, the methodological approach proposed and applied in this essay could be easily exported to other regional contexts in order to study agricultural land use change.
Spatial analysis and land use change in Sardinia: a case study based on a Tobit model
ZOPPI, CORRADO;LAI, SABRINA
2012-01-01
Abstract
Context In this essay we study the agricultural land use change in the Region of Sardina (Italy) in the time period 2003-2008, which is the period in which the European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF)-based part of the 2000-2006 Regional Operational Program of Sardinia (2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF) on the regional agricultural land use was implemented. The general objective is to assess whether, and to what extent, the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF was effective in maintaining agricultural land use compared to other physical, economic and social characteristics concerning local development. The final executive report of the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF (Regione Autonoma della Sardegna, 2009, p. 232) indicates that drastic measures aimed at simplifying payment procedures were adopted only starting from the year 2003, due to dramatic delays in the program implementation, and that only from that year did the program really start. Moreover, the European Commission stated that the expenditure of the 2000-2006 ROP had to be entirely realized and the official statements of account had to be made available to the European Commission by June 30, 2009, due to the impossibility of meeting the original deadline of December 31, 2006. For this reason, we consider the period 2003-2008 as the most suitable to assess if and to what extent the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF succeeded in maintaining agricultural land use. Central theme and methodology It has to be put in evidence that what we feel really innovative in the comprehensive discussion of this paper is the intermixed use of Geographic information system (GIS) technologies and econometric models in order to assess agricultural land-use processes related to the implementation of the cohesion policy of the European Union. More precisely, the results of a fairly standard censored regression (Tobit) model are spatially represented implemented through GIS. The model is founded and motivated through a GIS-based representation of its variables referred to Sardinian municipalities, and in particular of Sardinian agricultural land use, which is the focus of the assessment. Expected outcomes and relevance The Tobit model results make it clear that there is a strong relationship between agricultural land-use change and the other variables. These results entail some interesting insights concerning investment policies to maintain, reinforce and possibly expand agriculture land use, whose relevance can be clarified only through a spatial representation. What we deem of particular interest in this context, in terms of policy assessment, is that the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF is the most important program concerning agricultural land use implemented in Sardinia during the first decade of the new century, and quite similar in both strategy and structure to the other 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF’s of several Regions of the European Union (EU) under the 2000-2006 Structural Funds. In Sardinia as elsewhere, investments were spread over almost all of the regional municipalities (only three Sardinian municipalities out of 377 did not receive funds under the 2000-2006 ROP-EAGGF), and represented an important effort to support local development based on the vitality of the traditional primary sector of production. Therefore, the methodological approach proposed and applied in this essay could be easily exported to other regional contexts in order to study agricultural land use change.
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