War and decarbonisation: EU-Russia energy relations in crisis

The EU’s introduction of the European Green Deal and adoption of a far-reaching decarbonisation agenda in 2019-2021 cast serious doubts on the future of EU-Russia trade in fossil fuels. Russia’s recent military attack against Ukraine and the subsequent Western reaction have accelerated the EU’s attempts to disentangle itself from dependence on Russian energy supplies. The Union’s ongoing confrontation with Russia currently makes prospects for a ‘greener’ type of energy cooperation implausible. At the same time, Russia remains the fifth largest CO2 emitter (after China, the US, the EU and India) and a central actor in terms of ‘green’ resources - i.e. forests, critical minerals for the energy transition; hence its involvement in efforts to fight climate change will be important to attain global climate goals. This chapter assesses the implications of the European Green Deal and recent EU plans to reduce imports from Russia for the EU-Russia energy relationship. Subsequently, it examines potential options for interaction in the energy transition, which could help pursue the global climate agenda when the political situation will allow for it.