Evaluation of seismic displacements of a natural slope by simplified methods and dynamic analyses

The paper reports a comparison among three methods of increasing complexity to estimate the seismic dis-placements of natural slopes: (1) a simplified method, based on the statistical relationships proposed by Au-silio et al. (2007); (2) a coupled approach (‘stick-slip’ model) based on a 1D lumped mass model to compute simultaneously the dynamic site response and the sliding block displacements (Ausilio, 2008); (3) 2D finite differences analyses, accounting for soil heterogeneity and topographic effects. The methods are calibrated on the case study of Calitri landslide, reactivated during the Irpinia earthquake in 1980. The results of the anal-yses permitted to assess the predictive capabilities of the proposed methods and their relative degree of con-servativeness.