La meteorologia: cammino storico-epistemologico e studio del suo stato attuale di diffusione

The widespread interest in meteorology is mostly driven by the fact that weather affects our daily life, extending its influence beyond the mere economical impact. Despite this strong attention to meteorology it is seen quite differently from other scientific activities like, for instance, classical physics to which it is generally, although often unappropriately, associated. This work tries to highlight the peculiar epistemologic approach to modern meteorology, through the analysis of the phylosophical and historical paths that have brought about that approach. The perception of meteorology as an atypical science it is also due to an uncomplete, and in some cases even wrong, communication process of weather forecasts. In this study the main criticalities regarding this communication process are highlighted through two case studies: the hurricane Charley twhich hit Florida in 2004 and the intense precipitation that affected the southern part of Sardinia in 2008. The evidences drawn from the two case studies are then supported by an extensive analysis that has involved professional forecasters of 19 different public Meteorological Offices in Italy and a significant sample of italian and spanish users. The two groups were surveyed on the meaning they associate to the typical expressions used in the wetaher reports, about the comprehension of non categorical, i.e. probabilistic, forecasts and, finally, on the role of media in the communication process. The results clearly show the issues and problems still open and help to lay down some proposals to improve the quality of the communication techniques, in order to make weather forecasts more effective for the users.