Valutazione della vulnerabilità delle coste della Sardegna a fenomeni di erosione ed inondazione dovuti all'impatto degli eventi estremi meteo-marini

The main goal of this work is to provide a regional assessment of the coastal vulnerability of Sardinian sandy beaches to storm impacts. To do this we have assessed the geomorphic coastal vulnerability taking into account the intensity of storm induced hazards and the adaptation capacity of the system. The methodology aplied allows to calculate quantitatively -in a separate manner- the erosion and inundation hazards induced by the storms associated to a given probability of occurrence. The practical application of this method is to provide information that allows stakeholders to manage resource allocation and mitigate consequences. This framework has been developed by covering the following steps:(i). Define forcing conditions for the Sardinian coast using a storm classification method; to obtain this we have divided the Sardinian coast in 4 different sectors. For each sector storm events have been defined from hindcast wave data obtained for the period between 1979-2012. (ii) Find out the induced beach response to each storm class measured by the quantification of the flooding and erosion hazards. In each sector sandy beaches have been characterized in terms of their slope, height, widht and grain size. (iii) Estimation of a coastal vulnerability index formulated in terms of these two intermediate variables by means of a linear function that ranges from a minimum value of 0 (optimum state) to a maximum of 1 (failure state), defining 5 qualitative categories (Very Low, Low,. Medium, High, Very High). (iv) Assessment and mapping of the coastal vulnerability index along different sectors of the island. In terms of prospective analysis we have built a projected timeline of beach hazard based on existing storm data fitted into an extreme probability function. Once the probability of occurrence of the flooding and erosion hazards has been assessed and a risk level defined by the stakeholders, the spatial distribution of vulnerabilities associated to selected probability level will permit to "robustly" compare areas along the coast to identify the most endangered zones.