La politica estera birmana fra Cina e Stati Uniti: dall’isolamento a un’inedita centralità

This thesis aims at investigating both the rationale and the main features of Myanmar’s recent diplomatic shift, in particular vis-à-vis the People’s Republic of China and the United States. In order to grasp the essence of such a complex phenomenon, the analysis will primarily draw upon the existing IR theoretic literature regarding small Powers’ alignment strategies, highlighting the strengths and flaws associated with this traditional framework. Subsequently, the first chapter will introduce the notion of hedging as a viable alternative to the balancing vs. bandwagoning dichotomous approach, as well as a precious key to understand the aims and nature of Naypyidaw’s concrete behaviors in the international arena. The second part is designed to investigate Myanmar’s diplomatic trajectory from an historical standpoint, through a detailed investigation of the most relevant turning points that transformed the country’s neutral and dynamic diplomacy of the 1950s and 1960s into an isolated and generally reactive foreign policy, under the burden of several rounds of international sanctions descending from the regime’s brutal practices at home. Finally, the last chapter will try to contextualize the puzzle concerning the Burmese repositioning vis-à-vis regional rivalries by scrutinizing its surrounding environment: Southeast Asia, in fact, nowadays embodies a very competitive geopolitical space, characterized by the strategic “return” of several fundamental actors, as in the case of the U.S., Japan, and India. Finally, the study will shed a light on a paradigmatic case-study concerning the contemporary evolution of Sino-Burmese ties, represented by the contentious process of negotiation and, later, suspension of the Myitsone Dam project, which signaled the determination of Naypyidaw in breaking its dependent relation toward Beijing by re-establishing a multidirectional diplomacy, thanks also the ongoing rapprochement with the U.S. and their network of regional allies.