Demographic Shift and Housing Market: Evidence from Italian Metropolitan Cities

Demographic trends have a profound impact on various aspects of society, with significant implications for the property market. This paper explores the relationship between demographic shifts and the real estate market. A comprehensive literature review underlines the global significance of demographic change and highlights its impact on housing demand and prices. The research seeks to identify the impact of demographics on the Italian property market and to establish a quantifiable relationship between the two variables. The study covers three timespans (2018–23, 2012–23, and 2004–23) and focuses on fourteen Italian metropolitan cities. The models identify the quantitative relationships between the rise and the decline of population and housing values. The results show a relationship between population dynamics and housing market values. The hypothesis of a positive relationship between population growth and house price increases is confirmed with an impact that is consistent with other major international research. Given these findings and the ongoing demographic trends, the paper highlights the need to consider the impact of demographic change on an asset class that is essential to the wealth of Italians and other Europeans.