Regional spatial planning and global climate chage: An ecosystem service-based approach concerning two Southern Italian Regions

Climate change presents significant threats to human health, influencing both physical conditions and mental well-being. Reducing these impacts depends on keeping the carbon cycle in balance, since carbon dioxide helps control the planet’s temperature by shaping the behavior of greenhouse gases. In accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims for climate neutrality by the end of the century, the objective is to keep global warming within 1.5 °C by reaching a balance between carbon released into the atmosphere and carbon removed from it. Yet the carbon that is already accumulated in the atmosphere could still drive roughly 0.6 °C of additional warming, even if emissions ceased immediately. For this reason, attaining net-zero emissions is crucial to avoid surpassing the temperature threshold and underscores the need to understand how ecosystems store and capture carbon. This study introduces a methodological approach to achieving climate neutrality through planning strategies, relying on the Carbon Capture Capacity (CCC) indicator to evaluate existing conditions and emerging patterns. CCC is examined together with five ecosystem services (ESs): reduction of heat stress, habitat quality, agricultural and timber outputs, scenic value, and the potential for outdoor recreation (POA). The analysis investigates spatial relationships between CCC and these ESs in Basilicata and Campania to assess how multifunctional ecosystems can strengthen carbon sequestration and support global climate-neutrality goals. The spatial distribution of CCC is derived using the “Carbon Storage and Sequestration” module in the InVEST software, which calculates carbon stored in above- and below-ground vegetation, dead organic matter, and soils. Findings indicate that heat-stress reduction and habitat quality show the strongest positive associations with CCC, while POA has a moderate influence. Agricultural and timber production, along with scenic value, display weaker connections; however, scenic value highlights the importance of carefully locating photovoltaic and wind energy systems to preserve landscape character.