Mapping spatial synergies and trade-offs: A geographically weighted analysis of ecosystem services and carbon sequestration in Southern Italy

Moving toward climate neutrality calls for spatially explicit planning frameworks that reflect territorial diversity and land-use change processes. Within this concep-tual framework, this study has the objective of identifying and discussing spatial-ly explicit planning approaches that can support the transition to climate neutrality in different regional spatial contexts. Therefore, a methodological framework is introduced and applied, designed to support climate neutrality through spatial planning strategies. Carbon sequestration (CS) serves as a key metric to evaluate both the current state and the temporal evolution of this process, examined in connection with the provision of specific ecosystem services (ESs) within the rel-evant spatial setting. The work is structured as follows. An approach is devel-oped to define the provision of ESs. Drawing on previous research and assess-ments of environmental, landscape, and socio-cultural features, the study consid-ers the following ESs: quality of habitat to sustain the life cycles of species valu-able to humans; regulating climate by mitigating land sur-face temperature; agri-cultural and forestry production; and nature-based recreational opportunities. Moreover, spatial relationships between CS capacity and ES provision are exam-ined through geographically weighted regressions, allowing comparisons across Basilicata, Campania, and Sardinia, regions in Italy forming the Italian Mez-zogiorno. The multifunctional characteristics of ES supply contribute to optimiz-ing CS capacity and advancing climate neutrality goals. In all regional contexts, high values of CS capacity elasticity are recognized in relation to habitat quality and ground temperature mitigation, and very low elasticity conditions as regards the supply of recreational ESs and agricultural and forestry production.