According to a recent Goldman Sachs analysis, China will replace the United States as the largest economy in the world by 2027, which does not imply that it will be automatically the leading nation. The next decade will probably see China preoccupied with economic problems (the country must create millions of jobs every year, reduce the growing gap between rich and poor, create a suitable system of social security), problems domestically (important segments of Chinese people are in turmoil and society may blow up at any time), and also with its international environment (in the last years Beijing has exhibited an increasingly tough behaviour towards many of its neighbours in Asia, as well as the United States and the European Union, to the great detriment of its international image). Last but not least, the country must also wrestle with internal politics. China is in the middle of a leadership transition which will bring into power a new political leadership (the so-called “fifth generation”) and it is not clear what its system of government will look like in the future. That said it seems unlikely that China will be able to dominate the world in the near future. Actually China may not have any plans for world domination and may be more interested in continuing to pursue Deng Xiaoping’s dictum to “maintain a low profile, hide brightness, not seek leadership” (taoguang yanghui, bu dangtou). While in most Western political and academic circles China’s world domination seems to be taken for granted, in China, official, semi-official, and unofficial circles are still actively debating the opportunities and the risks of “simply” being a “major power”. This paper aims at investigating the contents of such intensive internal debate which may be helpful in order to better understand what kind of major power China wants to become and especially to clarify its plans for the future international governance.
Has China plans for world domination?
ONNIS, BARBARA
2012-01-01
Abstract
According to a recent Goldman Sachs analysis, China will replace the United States as the largest economy in the world by 2027, which does not imply that it will be automatically the leading nation. The next decade will probably see China preoccupied with economic problems (the country must create millions of jobs every year, reduce the growing gap between rich and poor, create a suitable system of social security), problems domestically (important segments of Chinese people are in turmoil and society may blow up at any time), and also with its international environment (in the last years Beijing has exhibited an increasingly tough behaviour towards many of its neighbours in Asia, as well as the United States and the European Union, to the great detriment of its international image). Last but not least, the country must also wrestle with internal politics. China is in the middle of a leadership transition which will bring into power a new political leadership (the so-called “fifth generation”) and it is not clear what its system of government will look like in the future. That said it seems unlikely that China will be able to dominate the world in the near future. Actually China may not have any plans for world domination and may be more interested in continuing to pursue Deng Xiaoping’s dictum to “maintain a low profile, hide brightness, not seek leadership” (taoguang yanghui, bu dangtou). While in most Western political and academic circles China’s world domination seems to be taken for granted, in China, official, semi-official, and unofficial circles are still actively debating the opportunities and the risks of “simply” being a “major power”. This paper aims at investigating the contents of such intensive internal debate which may be helpful in order to better understand what kind of major power China wants to become and especially to clarify its plans for the future international governance.
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