Empirical Evidence on Agricultural Land-Use Change in Sardinia, Italy, from GIS-Based Analysis and a Tobit Model

An important part of the Sardinian Regional Operational Programme (ROP) 2000–2006 is represented by the policies funded by the European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF), aimed at maintaining agricultural land uses and improving the quality of agricultural land. Such investments, spread over almost all Sardinian cities, attempted to support local development based on the traditional primary sector of production. This article analyses the investment policies implemented by the Sardinian Region through the 2000–2006 EAGGF-based part of the ROP (2000–2006 ROP-EAGGF), in order to assess their effectiveness. This assessment of effectiveness, implemented in the context of other signals concerning local development such as income and urbanization, is very important to address the ongoing policies of the 2007–2013 Rural Development Programme and the question of geographic concentration of investments. The article analyses the results of the 2000–2006 ROP-EAGGF through a geographic information system, by means of a Tobit model, and proposes an analytical and interpretive approach that can be easily exported to other public planning processes in order to implement investment in agriculture