In this paper we use risk management techniques to evaluate the effects of some risk factors that affect the energy production of a wind farm. We focus our attention on three major risks: wind speed variability, wind turbine failures and correlations between produced energy. As a first contribution, we show that the Weibull distribution, commonly used to fit recorded wind speed data, underestimates rare events. Therefore, in order to achieve a better estimation of the tail of the wind speed distribution, we advance a Generalized Pareto distribution. We considered one aspect of the wind turbines reliability by modeling their failure events as a compound Poisson process. Finally, the use of Copula enables us to consider the correlation between wind turbines that compose the wind farm. Once this procedure is set up, we show a sensitivity analysis and we also compare the results from the proposed procedure with a simplistic energy prediction using the Weibull distribution.

Wind speed prediction for wind farm applications by Extreme Value Theory and Copulas

PETRONI, FILIPPO;
2015

Abstract

In this paper we use risk management techniques to evaluate the effects of some risk factors that affect the energy production of a wind farm. We focus our attention on three major risks: wind speed variability, wind turbine failures and correlations between produced energy. As a first contribution, we show that the Weibull distribution, commonly used to fit recorded wind speed data, underestimates rare events. Therefore, in order to achieve a better estimation of the tail of the wind speed distribution, we advance a Generalized Pareto distribution. We considered one aspect of the wind turbines reliability by modeling their failure events as a compound Poisson process. Finally, the use of Copula enables us to consider the correlation between wind turbines that compose the wind farm. Once this procedure is set up, we show a sensitivity analysis and we also compare the results from the proposed procedure with a simplistic energy prediction using the Weibull distribution.
Compound Poisson process; Generalized Pareto distribution; Weibull distribution; Wind speed; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Civil and Structural Engineering; Mechanical Engineering
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11584/175247
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