Vertebrae reveal industrial-era increases in Atlantic bluefin tuna catch-at-size and juvenile growth

Climate change and size-selective overexploitation can alter fish size and growth, yet our understanding of how and to what extent is limited due to a lack of long-term biological data from wild populations. This precludes our ability to effectively forecast population dynamics and support sustainable fisheries management. Using modern, archived, and archaeological vertebrae dimensions and growth rings of one of the most intensely exploited populations, the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus, BFT), we estimated catch-at-size and early-life growth patterns from the 3 (rd) century bce to the 21 (st) century ce to understand responses to changes in its environment. We provide novel evidence that BFT juvenile growth increased between the 16 (th)-18 (th), 20 (th), and 21 (st) centuries, and is correlated with a warming climate and likely a decrease in stock biomass. We found it equally plausible that fisheries-induced evolution has acted to increase juvenile BFT growth, driving earlier maturation as a result of size-selective exploitation. Coincidently, we found limited evidence to suggest a long history of large ( >200 cm FL) BFT capture. Instead, we found that the catch-at-size of archaeological BFT was relatively small in comparison with more intensive, 20 (th) and 21 (st) century tuna trap fisheries which operated further from shore. This complex issue would benefit from studies using fine-scale biochronological analyses of otoliths and adaptation genomics, throughout the last century especially, to determine evolutionary responses to exploitation, and further disentangle the influence of temperature and biomass on fish growth.