This paper provides a SVEC investigation of long-run, short-run and contemporaneous relationships across per capita international tourism arrivals (ar), real GDP (y) and total international commercial transactions (tr) for the Italian economy. We find that variables span a bi-dimensional cointegrating space which we normalize as long-run relationships between y and ar and between ar and tr. Signs and magnitudes of the estimated elasticities are as expected and compare well with the literature. The causation mechanism shows that none of the variables are weakly exogenous. What we find is that, whereas there appears to be unidirectional long-run causality running from y to tr and from tr to ar, bi-directional causality is detected between y and ar. Structural estimation and a study of the Impulse-Response functions of “meaningful” shocks hitting the economy are used to provide valuable insights for policy and business strategy design

A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy

MASSIDDA, CARLA;MATTANA, PAOLO
2013-01-01

Abstract

This paper provides a SVEC investigation of long-run, short-run and contemporaneous relationships across per capita international tourism arrivals (ar), real GDP (y) and total international commercial transactions (tr) for the Italian economy. We find that variables span a bi-dimensional cointegrating space which we normalize as long-run relationships between y and ar and between ar and tr. Signs and magnitudes of the estimated elasticities are as expected and compare well with the literature. The causation mechanism shows that none of the variables are weakly exogenous. What we find is that, whereas there appears to be unidirectional long-run causality running from y to tr and from tr to ar, bi-directional causality is detected between y and ar. Structural estimation and a study of the Impulse-Response functions of “meaningful” shocks hitting the economy are used to provide valuable insights for policy and business strategy design
2013
Tourism arrivals; Trade; SVECM analysis
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
JTR_2013.pdf

Solo gestori archivio

Tipologia: versione editoriale (VoR)
Dimensione 1.07 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.07 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11584/37454
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 118
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 99
social impact