Prospective university students in mathematics reflecting on uncertainty: Results and comparisons

This paper investigates the written reflections of prospective undergraduate students in mathematics on a simple problem involving coin tosses. I analyze these in terms of recency and equiprobability effects understood non-normatively, observing in particular a major tendency of this type of students to equiprobability answers. The comparison of the present results with analogous results obtained in previous studies points to the fact that the influence of a university education in mathematics on the equiprobability effect is overall limited. It thus follows that the tendency to equiprobability answers of university students in mathematics is most likely acquired during previous compulsory education.