Prognostic Value of the Pace of Tumor Progression as Assessed by Serial 18F-FDG PET/CT Scan and Liquid Biopsy in Refractory Colorectal Cancer: The CORIOLAN Trial

Introduction: Decision making in refractory colorectal cancer (rCRC) is challenging, with limited data available to predict patient outcome. We conducted a study to assess the pace of cancer progression as a potential prognostic and decision tool. Methods: CORIOLAN was a prospective, single-center, single-arm trial recruiting refractory CRC patients with an ECOG performance status of ≤1 and an estimated life expectancy of ≥12 weeks. 18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18 F-FDG PET/CT) scan and blood sample collection were carried out at baseline and after 2 weeks with no cancer treatment given between these timepoints. The primary objective was to evaluate the association between pace of cancer progression as defined by changes of the whole-body metabolically active tumor volume (WB-MATV) and overall survival (OS). Exploratory objectives included evaluation of the prognostic value of circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA), circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Results: 47 eligible patients who had received a median number of 5 (range 2–8) prior treatments were enrolled. At the time of analysis, 45 deaths had occurred, with 26% of patients dying within 12 weeks. The median OS was 6.3 months (range 0.4–14.3). The median relative delta between WB-MATV at baseline and 2 weeks was +21%. Changes of WB-MATV, however, failed to predict OS (hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, p = 0.383). Similarly, no association was observed between changes of any of the circulating biomarkers investigated and prognosis. By contrast, high WB-MATV (4.2 versus 9.4 months; HR 3.1, p = 0.003), high CEA (4.4 versus 7.0 months; HR 1.9, p = 0.053), high cfDNA (4.7 versus 7.0 months; HR 2.2, p = 0.015) and high CTC count (3.3 versus 7.5 months; HR 6.5, p < 0.001) at baseline were associated with worse OS. Conclusions: In this study, approximately 1 out of 4 refractory CRC patients who were judged to have a life expectancy >12 weeks actually died within 12 weeks. Baseline assessment of WB-MATV, cfDNA, CTCs and CEA, but not early change evaluation of the same, may help to refine patient prognostication and guide management decisions.