Assessing Durum Wheat Productivity in a Mediterranean Area Under Climate Change Using AquaCrop

Agricultural heritage is a cultural pillar of the Mediterranean region, where durum wheat plays a central role in traditional landscapes and food systems. Projected climate change is expected to alter crop productivity and place additional pressure on water resources. This study assesses future variability in durum wheat productivity and related implications for water resource management in Sardinia, Italy, where durum wheat is a major rainfed C3 crop. The AquaCrop-OpenSource model was calibrated to local conditions and applied to simulate historical (1950–2023) and near-future (2024–2050) scenarios using projections from seven climate models. Results indicate a modest increase in average yields under future conditions, accompanied by a higher frequency of crop failures. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations emerge as the primary driver of yield increases, while changes in precipitation represent the main limiting factor. The role of aid irrigation as an adaptation strategy to stabilize yields and enhance productivity was evaluated. Scenario analysis shows that aid irrigation aimed at preventing crop failure remains sustainable in the near future, requiring approximately 14–17% of current agricultural water use in Sardinia. In contrast, irrigation used to maximize productivity would increase water demand by more than 40%, intensifying competition for water resources.