Understanding the drivers of extinction risk is essential for effective conservation planning. Within the Mediterranean Basin, Italy supports high plant diversity, yet the key correlates of extinction risk in its flora remain insufficiently explored. To address this gap, we analysed the most comprehensive dataset currently available for the Italian flowering flora, comprising 472 species with IUCN Red List assessments and standardised geographic and ecological data. Extinction risk was modelled as an ordinal response variable based on IUCN Red List categories, as a function of geographic variables, habitat type, and species traits within a phylogenetic framework. Extinction risk was highest in species with narrow geographic and elevational ranges and in species associated with coastal and wetland habitats. In contrast, species traits related to dispersal, competitive ability, and reproduction showed limited predictive power, suggesting that species with contrasting strategies may experience similar pressures. Extinction risk was also strongly phylogenetically structured, indicating that vulnerability is not randomly distributed across the phylogeny. These findings provide useful indications for future conservation planning and prioritisation by identifying combinations of range restriction and habitat vulnerability associated with extinction risk, while highlighting the need for finer-scale habitat data and datasets covering more species and functional traits.
National-scale analysis of extinction risk correlates in Italian flowering plants
Bagella S.;Calderisi G.;Cogoni D.;Pinna M. S.;Fenu G.Ultimo
2026-01-01
Abstract
Understanding the drivers of extinction risk is essential for effective conservation planning. Within the Mediterranean Basin, Italy supports high plant diversity, yet the key correlates of extinction risk in its flora remain insufficiently explored. To address this gap, we analysed the most comprehensive dataset currently available for the Italian flowering flora, comprising 472 species with IUCN Red List assessments and standardised geographic and ecological data. Extinction risk was modelled as an ordinal response variable based on IUCN Red List categories, as a function of geographic variables, habitat type, and species traits within a phylogenetic framework. Extinction risk was highest in species with narrow geographic and elevational ranges and in species associated with coastal and wetland habitats. In contrast, species traits related to dispersal, competitive ability, and reproduction showed limited predictive power, suggesting that species with contrasting strategies may experience similar pressures. Extinction risk was also strongly phylogenetically structured, indicating that vulnerability is not randomly distributed across the phylogeny. These findings provide useful indications for future conservation planning and prioritisation by identifying combinations of range restriction and habitat vulnerability associated with extinction risk, while highlighting the need for finer-scale habitat data and datasets covering more species and functional traits.
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