The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used for this purpose but better models are needed to reproduce the statistical properties of wind speed data. We downloaded a database, freely available from the web, in which are included wind speed data taken from L.S.I. -Lastem station (Italy) and sampled every 10 min. With the aim of reproducing the statistical properties of this data we propose the use of three semi-Markov models. We generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The time lagged autocorrelation is then used to compare statistical properties of the proposed models with those of real data and also with a synthetic time series generated through a simple Markov chain.

First and second order semi-Markov chains for wind speed modeling

Petroni, Filippo;
2013-01-01

Abstract

The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used for this purpose but better models are needed to reproduce the statistical properties of wind speed data. We downloaded a database, freely available from the web, in which are included wind speed data taken from L.S.I. -Lastem station (Italy) and sampled every 10 min. With the aim of reproducing the statistical properties of this data we propose the use of three semi-Markov models. We generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The time lagged autocorrelation is then used to compare statistical properties of the proposed models with those of real data and also with a synthetic time series generated through a simple Markov chain.
Wind models; Semi-Markov chains; Synthetic time series; Autocorrelation
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
damico_et_al_physA2013.pdf

Solo gestori archivio

Tipologia: versione editoriale
Dimensione 673.37 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
673.37 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11584/54702
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 56
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 55
social impact