In the last several decades, extended dry periods have affected the Mediterranean area with dramatic impacts on water resources. Climate models are predicting further warming, with negative effects on water availability. The authors analyze the hydroclimatic tendencies of a typical Mediterranean basin, the Flumendosa basin located in Sardinia, an island in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, where in the last 30 years a sequence of dry periods has seriously impacted the water management system. Interestingly, in the historic record the annual runoff reductions have been more pronounced than the annual precipitation reductions. This paper performs an analysis that links this runoff decrease to changes in the total annual precipitation and its seasonal structure. The seasonality is a key determinant of the surface runoff process, as it reflects the degree to which rainfall is concentrated during the winter. The observed reductions in winter precipitation are shown here to be well correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.5) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Considering the predictability of the winter NAO, there is by extension an opportunity to predict future winter precipitation and runoff tendencies. The recent hydroclimatic trends are shown to impact hydrologic design criteria for water resources planning. The authors demonstrate that there is a dangerous increase of the drought severity viewed from the perspective of water resources planning.

On the Role of NAO Driven Interannual Variability in Rainfall Seasonality on Water Resources and Hydrologic Design in a Typical Mediterranean Basin

Roberto Corona
;
Nicola Montaldo;
2018

Abstract

In the last several decades, extended dry periods have affected the Mediterranean area with dramatic impacts on water resources. Climate models are predicting further warming, with negative effects on water availability. The authors analyze the hydroclimatic tendencies of a typical Mediterranean basin, the Flumendosa basin located in Sardinia, an island in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, where in the last 30 years a sequence of dry periods has seriously impacted the water management system. Interestingly, in the historic record the annual runoff reductions have been more pronounced than the annual precipitation reductions. This paper performs an analysis that links this runoff decrease to changes in the total annual precipitation and its seasonal structure. The seasonality is a key determinant of the surface runoff process, as it reflects the degree to which rainfall is concentrated during the winter. The observed reductions in winter precipitation are shown here to be well correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.5) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Considering the predictability of the winter NAO, there is by extension an opportunity to predict future winter precipitation and runoff tendencies. The recent hydroclimatic trends are shown to impact hydrologic design criteria for water resources planning. The authors demonstrate that there is a dangerous increase of the drought severity viewed from the perspective of water resources planning.
Rainfall; Runoff; Climate change; Climatology; Hydrometeorology
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
jhmD170078preprint.pdf

embargo fino al 22/02/2018

Tipologia: versione pre-print
Dimensione 1.33 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.33 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11584/238249
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 13
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 12
social impact