Internal migration across Italian regions: macroeconomic determinants and accomodating potential for a dualistic economy

We investigate internal migration across Italian regions and provide econometric evidence that the share of young population, per capita GDP, unemployment rate and migrants' human capital are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and co-integration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short- and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. The human capital of migrants and the share of population aged 20-34 are both negatively related with regional net migration. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanisms.