Exploring the impact of high schools, socioeconomic factors, and degree programs on higher education success in Italy

This study investigates the determinants of tertiary education success in Italy, focusing on students' outcomes between the first and second years. We use population data of students enrolled between 2015 and 2019, integrating information on high school environments and degree program characteristics. This rich dataset has been exploited with a two-step approach: the first step defines indicators for high school quality and degree program difficulty; the second estimates a multinomial logit to assess the determinants of students' probability of being classified as regulars, churners, at risk of dropout, and dropouts. Data regarding the 2019 cohort have been further investigated by exploiting the additional information on students' socioeconomic backgrounds and schools' self-assessed effectiveness evaluations. Results indicate that students' high school backgrounds, socioeconomic conditions, and post-graduation prospects in terms of net wages and occupation rates of graduates in the chosen degree program significantly influence academic success and students' academic persistence. Overall, the results offer a comprehensive view of the determinants of university success, with specific patterns observed across the different student categories.