Robust spatial urban planning leveraging the flexibility of distributed energy resources

To meet the decarbonization targets set forth in the Sustainable Development Goals and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the European Union is focusing on enhancing energy efficiency in urban areas. This involves incentivizing improvements in building energy usage and promoting the development of multi-energy systems. The integration of distributed energy resources - such as photovoltaic systems, battery storage, electric vehicles, and flexible demand - presents a valuable opportunity to enhance urban energy resilience. However, spatial heterogeneity, uncertain demand profiles, and variable renewable generation pose significant challenges to effective planning those resources. This paper proposes a robust spatial planning framework for urban energy systems that leverages the operational flexibility of distributed energy resources. The methodology combines spatial data analysis with scenario-based robust optimization to account for uncertainties in energy demand, renewable resource availability, and urban development trajectories. The framework is applied to a representative district of Cagliari (Italy), integrating real spatial data and energy infrastructure constraints. The case study demonstrates how the flexibility provided by distributed energy assets can significantly improve cost-effectiveness under multiple uncertainty scenarios. Results highlight the importance of spatially aware strategies in optimizing the placement and operation of distributed assets, while ensuring reliable energy supply across urban areas.