Disentangling the secondary school effects in the assessment of university inefficiencies

The inefficacy of the Italian university system has been discussed in the relevant scientific literature, mainly using data from single universities or survey data. This paper uses the data provided by the National Student Archive related to eight cohorts of first-year students who enrolled in Italian universities between 2010 and 2018 to study the risk of dropout and churn during the 1st year. Revisiting the model of Tinto, to include in the analysis the possible effect of university services and linking each student to the high school attended before enrolment, the work has two primary aims: (i) to investigate the determinants of university failure, focusing on how strategic factors–such as students’ mobility choices, previous educational background, and university policies addressed to improve digital communication and services–affect the probability of experiencing churn or dropout; (ii) to disentangle the secondary school effect on these two outcomes by adopting a two steps procedure which relays on multilevel logistic models. Results allowed us to estimate adjusted indicators of inefficiency, which are suitable for comparisons across universities that offer degree programmes in the same disciplinary field and provide evidence on the role played by the secondary school attended in determining substantial inequalities at entrance. © 2024 Society for Research into Higher Education.